And less spin should mean less of the force in physics known as the Magnus Effect, which pushes up on a fastball, giving it the appearance of rising. Muncy is right about Hader’s angle: Among lefties to have thrown at least 100 four-seam fastballs by July 14, Hader had the fourth-lowest release point but the 11th-greatest average velocity, according to Baseball Savant data.īut what about Muncy’s contention that Hader has a high-spin fastball? After all, Hader’s total fastball spin is below average. “And then he’s throwing 97, 98 so it’s just very, very hard to get on top of that fastball.” “When he’s releasing the ball, it’s almost underneath his armpit, and so when he has a high-spin fastball from that angle, it really does look like it’s coming from the ground up,” Muncy said. Dodgers infielder Max Muncy, who is 0-for-5 with four strikeouts in his career against Hader, told FiveThirtyEight that Hader’s arm angle makes all the difference. Players who have faced him may have some insight. Hader’s fastball is something of a ghost pitch: It’s very difficult to hit but not for any of the usual reasons. Since 2008, when pitch-tracking systems were up and running in all major league parks, Hader owns the greatest career swing-and-miss rate of any pitcher on four-seamers (38.7 percent) with at least 500 fastballs thrown. 3 Another 40 percent of swings against his fastball are fouled off - meaning that an opponent is able to put a ball in play just 16 percent of the time he swings at a Hader fastball. Yet batters are whiffing on 44 percent of their swings against Hader’s fastball, the top mark in the majors. Moreover, fastballs - even mid-90 mph iterations - are generally pitches that produce some of the lowest swing-and-miss rates in baseball. The average spin rate for a four-seam fastball this year is 2,284 revolutions per minute, while Hader’s is a rate of 2,154 rpms. Hader also owns a below-average total spin rate, as calculated by Statcast’s TrackMan Doppler radar component. By comparison, Chapman’s fastball averages 98.2 mph, which is sixth-best in the league. While the pitch’s velocity (95.9 mph) is above average, it ranks just 66th among fastballs. Hader turns to his signature pitch on 88.6 percent of his throws, a greater frequency than all but two MLB pitchers to have thrown at least 20 innings this year. 1 For a single season in the pitch-tracking era, 2 only two pitchers have posted higher rates: Aroldis Chapman at 52.5 percent in 2014 and Craig Kimbrel at 50.2 percent in 2012.īut what’s perplexing about Hader’s whiff rate is that hitters know what’s coming: He is going to throw his four-seam fastball. The Milwaukee Brewers reliever has struck out an absurd 50 percent of batters faced this season. CLEVELAND - Josh Hader’s fastball is the most dominating pitch of its type in recent baseball history.
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